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Weather poor-cast
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| PACKED OUT: People flocked to Bournemouth Beach on this gorgeous sunny day, despite the forecast of heavy rain |
Weathermen have come under fire for getting their forecasts wrong and deterring tourists from travelling to Dorset on day trips and short breaks.
Critics have lashed the Met Office and BBC for repeatedly struggling to get the weather right over recent weeks and predicting rain on days which turned out to be some of the best of the year.
The Daily Echo logged the BBC's online weather forecasts for Bournemouth on 25 days in July.
They were wrong on 15 days; mainly stating that the weather was worse than in turned out to be.
Bournemouth borough council's tourism boss Mark Smith said: "Inaccurate weather forecasts are costing the town money.
"Hoteliers and guesthouse owners, as well as attractions, are suffering because people wanting to come here at the last minute often check the weather before making a late booking.
"Wrong forecasts have been a problem for Bournemouth for many years.
"Often we have totally different weather to other areas, just a few miles away, which makes it very difficult for forecasters to predict with any accuracy.
"On Friday night Bournemouth had no rain at all for our first Family Fiesta but it wasn't the same story in Ringwood.
"Now that the tourist season is in full swing, let's hope we see some decent weather for the rest of August and the forecasters get it right."
Boscombe hotelier Debbie Payne said: "It's very frustrating but something we have all learned to live with over the years.
"The BBC don't even put Bournemouth on their weather map which seems incredible.
| The headline for this story came from 2CR listener Andy from Ringwood who won the Headline Game on the Paul Bunker Show | |
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"There's no doubt that people booking late breaks will be put off by poor weather forecasts; even if they turn out to be wrong.
"By that stage it is too late.
"Bookings for August are slow so we're hoping that the weather improves and the forecasters manage to get it right."
The Met Office said its three-day forecasts are now more accurate than a one day-forecast in 1980 but admitted it had problems with details of showers.
There have been suggestions that forecasters are so terrified of failing to predict storms after the 1987 hurricane fiasco that they are erring on the side of caution.
Where they went wrong
The BBC predicted that there would be light showers in Bournemouth on July 8 - it was sunny all day. Its forecast for July 10 was sunny intervals. There were rain showers that morning. Predicted weather for July 11 was heavy showers but it was dry practically all day. Light showers were forecast for July 12. Wrong again; it was dry and sunny. Light showers were also forecast for July 13. It was cloudy at times but fine all day. The forecast for July 15 was light showers. The day turned out to be warm and fine. On July 17, at 7pm light showers were forecast for July 18, which was sunny all day. On July 21, forecasters predicted sunny intervals for July 22, which was sunny all day. Despite forecasts of sunny intervals for July 24 it was very hot all day and on July 25, forecasters got it wrong again when they predicted sunny intervals for July 26. It was hot all day. On July 29 the weathermen forecast cloudy conditions for July 30. Wrong - it was sunny.
7:00am Sunday 3rd August 2008
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CommentPosted by: HAL101, Bournemouth on 12:47pm Sun 3 Aug 08
I remember the 'Great Storm' of 19 - um, well, when ever. [bold]They certainly got that wrong[/bold], and I have never trusted the forecast since.
I remember the 'Great Storm' of 19 - um, well, when ever.
They certainly got that wrong, and I have never trusted the forecast since.
Posted by: HAL101, Bournemouth on 12:48pm Sun 3 Aug 08
Oh yes, I remember, 1987. I slept through that.
Oh yes, I remember, 1987. I slept through that.
Posted by: johnpeek, Bournemouth on 1:35pm Sun 3 Aug 08
They are too busy working with Bouurnemoth Council concentrating on their 50 year forcasts to save us all from climate change. You cannot expect them to get their 3 day forcasts right as well!!
They are too busy working with Bouurnemoth Council concentrating on their 50 year forcasts to save us all from climate change. You cannot expect them to get their 3 day forcasts right as well!!
Posted by: Christopher, Wallisdown & Winton West on 1:55pm Sun 3 Aug 08
Having an avid interest in meteorology, the BBC never really say "the weather for Bournemouth is", it is invariably described as a whole area of Dorset.
Bournemouth is situated in a valley. Just look at the coast line, it is all cliffs, except where the pier lies, and if you follow back from that it is like a valley, and once over the upper levels it drops down again heading north.
This causes any forecast precipitations to change, and therefore, rain forecast in this area, may not actually hit Bournemouth itself.
Having an avid interest in meteorology, the BBC never really say "the weather for Bournemouth is", it is invariably described as a whole area of Dorset.
Bournemouth is situated in a valley. Just look at the coast line, it is all cliffs, except where the pier lies, and if you follow back from that it is like a valley, and once over the upper levels it drops down again heading north.
This causes any forecast precipitations to change, and therefore, rain forecast in this area, may not actually hit Bournemouth itself.
Posted by: Jim, Bournemouth on 2:07pm Sun 3 Aug 08
AS a weather watcher for many years, I'll speak up in defence of the weathermen here.
We live at the edhe of a large ocean and a large sea mass, which makes weather forecasting particularly difficult.
Look at the instances listed above. The key word here is "showers".
Showers by their very nature are very hit and miss. Under showery conditions in somewhat unstable air, some places will get a few and other places nearby may well stay dry. Today is another case in point.. ok it is cloudy and we've had a couple of light showers here, but looking at the rain radar, some places nearby will have had a downpour or two. You simply can't call that - it is random.
Quite often the showers will be inland with the coast staying dry.
The one problem with the BBC online forecasts is that they are, as I understand it, automated (from weather model output) without any human intervention. My opinion is that they are best taken with a large pinch of salt. Much better to watch a TV forecast, with the caveats I mentioned above.
AS a weather watcher for many years, I'll speak up in defence of the weathermen here.
We live at the edhe of a large ocean and a large sea mass, which makes weather forecasting particularly difficult.
Look at the instances listed above. The key word here is "showers".
Showers by their very nature are very hit and miss. Under showery conditions in somewhat unstable air, some places will get a few and other places nearby may well stay dry. Today is another case in point.. ok it is cloudy and we've had a couple of light showers here, but looking at the rain radar, some places nearby will have had a downpour or two. You simply can't call that - it is random.
Quite often the showers will be inland with the coast staying dry.
The one problem with the BBC online forecasts is that they are, as I understand it, automated (from weather model output) without any human intervention. My opinion is that they are best taken with a large pinch of salt. Much better to watch a TV forecast, with the caveats I mentioned above.
Posted by: ED, Soton on 2:27pm Sun 3 Aug 08
I live in Southampton but have been working in Bournemouth ( Durley Dean Hotel)- outside for the last 10 weeks and with much amusement we have noticed how wrong the weather predictions have been for some time now.... i'm not suprised it has had a negative problem with day trippers etc....
I live in Southampton but have been working in Bournemouth ( Durley Dean Hotel)- outside for the last 10 weeks and with much amusement we have noticed how wrong the weather predictions have been for some time now.... i'm not suprised it has had a negative problem with day trippers etc....
Posted by: hoppity, hamworthy on 2:40pm Sun 3 Aug 08
I rarely watch the weather forecast for a lot of the above reasons, where we live makes a lot of difference but having said that the forecasters cannot even get the "general" weather right. I tend to suck and see, if i think it may rain I carry a brolly I never be put off going anywhere by a forecast thats silly,you cannot guarantee the weather even abroad.
I rarely watch the weather forecast for a lot of the above reasons, where we live makes a lot of difference but having said that the forecasters cannot even get the "general" weather right. I tend to suck and see, if i think it may rain I carry a brolly I never be put off going anywhere by a forecast thats silly,you cannot guarantee the weather even abroad.
Posted by: laurie marsh, australia on 3:13pm Sun 3 Aug 08
An accurate weather forecast needs one of two things (1) a large land mass or, (2) a large area of water.
Britain has a problem on both fronts (if you will pardon the pun!"
An accurate weather forecast needs one of two things (1) a large land mass or, (2) a large area of water.
Britain has a problem on both fronts (if you will pardon the pun!"
Posted by: PokesdownMark, Pokesdown on 3:55pm Sun 3 Aug 08
Ok then so the council need to put up a few high quality web cams showing how wonderful the town looks. Even during iffy weather the view across the bay usually looks stunning.
There would be a cost to doing this but it is certain to pull visitors to the town.
Ok then so the council need to put up a few high quality web cams showing how wonderful the town looks. Even during iffy weather the view across the bay usually looks stunning.
There would be a cost to doing this but it is certain to pull visitors to the town.
Posted by: Phil, Poole on 4:30pm Sun 3 Aug 08
What annoys me is how the TV weather people present their forecasts for several days ahead as if they're 100% certain – when more often than not, they're very wrong. And they never apologise for getting it wrong either.
Those computer visuals are misleading tosh too: as if they know exactly where a shower of rain will be in a few days' time!
What annoys me is how the TV weather people present their forecasts for several days ahead as if they're 100% certain – when more often than not, they're very wrong. And they never apologise for getting it wrong either.
Those computer visuals are misleading tosh too: as if they know exactly where a shower of rain will be in a few days' time!
Posted by: 2Much, New Forest on 5:06pm Sun 3 Aug 08
OK..shoot me down in flames..but this has bugged me for a while..how do the forecasters predict wind change?..Surely wind direction is a lot to do with weather?
OK..shoot me down in flames..but this has bugged me for a while..how do the forecasters predict wind change?..Surely wind direction is a lot to do with weather?
Posted by: ajamesy1948, northbourne on 5:29pm Sun 3 Aug 08
are these the same experts that are predicting global warming in years to come? they cant even get the next days weather right ....
are these the same experts that are predicting global warming in years to come? they cant even get the next days weather right ....
Posted by: Christopher, Wallisdown & Winton West on 6:09pm Sun 3 Aug 08
[quote][bold]2Much[/bold] wrote:
OK..shoot me down in flames..but this has bugged me for a while..how do the forecasters predict wind change?..Surely wind direction is a lot to do with weather?[/quote] Rightly so. Wind direction is due to the isobars around a low or high pressure. If it is high then they are clockwise, if low, anti clockwise. Depending on where the depression is sitting over the country or your location depicts where the wind comes from. Probably why forecasters can see the change of wind ahead of time.
Yes some forecasts are too far ahead. Most weather systems will change in a 4 to 8 hour period.
Take a look at a weather site online and see it change
2Much wrote:
OK..shoot me down in flames..but this has bugged me for a while..how do the forecasters predict wind change?..Surely wind direction is a lot to do with weather?
Rightly so. Wind direction is due to the isobars around a low or high pressure. If it is high then they are clockwise, if low, anti clockwise. Depending on where the depression is sitting over the country or your location depicts where the wind comes from. Probably why forecasters can see the change of wind ahead of time.
Yes some forecasts are too far ahead. Most weather systems will change in a 4 to 8 hour period.
Take a look at a weather site online and see it change
Posted by: Gary Livemore, Bournemouth on 6:24pm Sun 3 Aug 08
Its very very difficult for the weather men to predict. Bournemouth has its own micro climate. Often the coast has different weather to only a short way inland. I am in Bournemouth town centre and often you look out to sea and it clear blue sky and you look inland and its cloudy. Sea breezes can blow the clouds inland. Also cloud will bubble up over the land as the land heats up in the sun shine where as the sea is cooler so limiting conversion. I think the weather men do a good job. the 5 day forecast on the BBC site can be a bit hit and miss but the text forecast is normally quite good. Often the forecast in the echo is not correct!
Its very very difficult for the weather men to predict. Bournemouth has its own micro climate. Often the coast has different weather to only a short way inland. I am in Bournemouth town centre and often you look out to sea and it clear blue sky and you look inland and its cloudy. Sea breezes can blow the clouds inland. Also cloud will bubble up over the land as the land heats up in the sun shine where as the sea is cooler so limiting conversion. I think the weather men do a good job. the 5 day forecast on the BBC site can be a bit hit and miss but the text forecast is normally quite good. Often the forecast in the echo is not correct!
Posted by: MIG, Poole on 6:33pm Sun 3 Aug 08
As I write this it is raining, it has been raining for the past 2 hours.
I have just looked at the BBC website where I can get VERY specific weather, by the hour and for a local area.
It tells me that I am currently enjoying sunny intervals and will get a light shower in about 30 minutes time.
There is an adage that The British Isles do not have climate, they just have weather. Most forecasting is based upon an average of what happened the last time similar events occurred, e.g. presence and size of low and high pressure areas. The problem they have is that the systems all interact so it never works out quite the same each time. In other words it's just computerised guesswork.
As I write this it is raining, it has been raining for the past 2 hours.
I have just looked at the BBC website where I can get VERY specific weather, by the hour and for a local area.
It tells me that I am currently enjoying sunny intervals and will get a light shower in about 30 minutes time.
There is an adage that The British Isles do not have climate, they just have weather. Most forecasting is based upon an average of what happened the last time similar events occurred, e.g. presence and size of low and high pressure areas. The problem they have is that the systems all interact so it never works out quite the same each time. In other words it's just computerised guesswork.
Posted by: Jim, Bournemouth on 6:42pm Sun 3 Aug 08
[quote][bold]2Much[/bold] wrote:
OK..shoot me down in flames..but this has bugged me for a while..how do the forecasters predict wind change?..Surely wind direction is a lot to do with weather?[/quote] A good starting point if you want to get a general understanding of how weather works is here:
http://www.metoffice
.gov.uk/education/se
condary/students/ind
ex.html
It is aimed at secondary school students, but is very handy for the layman to get a good grounding in the weather basics.
2Much wrote:
OK..shoot me down in flames..but this has bugged me for a while..how do the forecasters predict wind change?..Surely wind direction is a lot to do with weather?
A good starting point if you want to get a general understanding of how weather works is here:
http://www.metoffice
.gov.uk/education/se
condary/students/ind
ex.html
It is aimed at secondary school students, but is very handy for the layman to get a good grounding in the weather basics.
Posted by: Jim, Bournemouth on 6:46pm Sun 3 Aug 08
Addendum to my last - you'll need to copy and paste the link into your browser.
Addendum to my last - you'll need to copy and paste the link into your browser.
Posted by: Charlie on 8:33pm Sun 3 Aug 08
I just look out of the window. Are there any clouds? If so, what colour are they? In which direction are they moving? How fast are they moving? That's sufficiently good to decide roughly what the weather will be.
I just look out of the window. Are there any clouds? If so, what colour are they? In which direction are they moving? How fast are they moving? That's sufficiently good to decide roughly what the weather will be.
Posted by: mick, poole on 8:51pm Sun 3 Aug 08
bit wet today
Posted by: Carl Barron, Dorset on 9:20pm Sun 3 Aug 08
[bold]As a matter of interest,[/bold] a few years ago I wrote and suggested to [bold]ITV News[/bold] that they consider commissioning a [bold]few local farmers[/bold] to get thier opinion's as to future weather forecasts for the area.
I explained that the [bold]media[/bold] might cease upon the [bold]opportunity[/bold] to publish these reports [bold]in contrast[/bold] with the main stream weather forecasters such as the BBC etc.
[italic]Regretfully[/italic] ITV News declined to use the suggestion, as it might in thier words, [bold]upset thier staff.[/bold]
[bold]Had they[/bold] used this suggestion, you could imagine [bold]Headlines[/bold] such as, [bold]'Farmer Giles Knocks Spots off of Weathermen'.[/bold]
There's still time for [bold]The Echo[/bold] to cease this opportunity by commissioning a farmer or so for a [bold]small remuneration.[/bold]
It could [bold]certainly increase paper sales[/bold] I'm pretty sure of that as the public clamour to get the latest as to [bold]Farmer Giles 5 Weathermen nil.
[/bold]
As a matter of interest, a few years ago I wrote and suggested to
ITV News that they consider commissioning a
few local farmers to get thier opinion's as to future weather forecasts for the area.
I explained that the
media might cease upon the
opportunity to publish these reports
in contrast with the main stream weather forecasters such as the BBC etc.
Regretfully ITV News declined to use the suggestion, as it might in thier words,
upset thier staff.
Had they used this suggestion, you could imagine
Headlines such as,
'Farmer Giles Knocks Spots off of Weathermen'.
There's still time for
The Echo to cease this opportunity by commissioning a farmer or so for a
small remuneration.
It could
certainly increase paper sales I'm pretty sure of that as the public clamour to get the latest as to
Farmer Giles 5 Weathermen nil.
Posted by: In Absentia, Bournemouth on 9:36pm Sun 3 Aug 08
This article is a load of cobblers. What deters people from travelling to the area is the following:
Traffic congestion on the A31, A35 and through the Sandford area, plus huge queues for the Sandbanks Ferry.
£7 per day to park in Bournemouth and Poole, plus overpriced attractions when they get here.
Whilst I agree that the BBC's computerised forecasting seems pretty inaccurate, for a paper like the Echo to berate another media outlet for accuracy is laughable.
This article is a load of cobblers. What deters people from travelling to the area is the following:
Traffic congestion on the A31, A35 and through the Sandford area, plus huge queues for the Sandbanks Ferry.
£7 per day to park in Bournemouth and Poole, plus overpriced attractions when they get here.
Whilst I agree that the BBC's computerised forecasting seems pretty inaccurate, for a paper like the Echo to berate another media outlet for accuracy is laughable.
Posted by: Christopher, Wallisdown & Winton West on 9:44pm Sun 3 Aug 08
It is not the Echo who says the weather causes the problem, it is our Tourist Leader, Mark Smith, you know the guy who has mounted police as a childrens attraction at the firework displays. The one who says we over 300 restaurants, the one who says we lots of free attractions, the one who stands on Bournemouth Beach and says Bournemouth as everything.
Absentia is probably more accurate.
The only weather report required for Bournemouth is, WHETHER IT WILL EVER BE THE SAME AS IT WAS. HAPPY BRIGHT AND SUNNY, RATHER THAN MISERABLE, DARK, and I am not talking weather.
Why cannot the Councillors get out to there wards and ask what we want to make Bournemouth a brighter place.
It is not the Echo who says the weather causes the problem, it is our Tourist Leader, Mark Smith, you know the guy who has mounted police as a childrens attraction at the firework displays. The one who says we over 300 restaurants, the one who says we lots of free attractions, the one who stands on Bournemouth Beach and says Bournemouth as everything.
Absentia is probably more accurate.
The only weather report required for Bournemouth is, WHETHER IT WILL EVER BE THE SAME AS IT WAS. HAPPY BRIGHT AND SUNNY, RATHER THAN MISERABLE, DARK, and I am not talking weather.
Why cannot the Councillors get out to there wards and ask what we want to make Bournemouth a brighter place.
Posted by: Miketheplumb, Poole on 8:10am Mon 4 Aug 08
C'mon people, the BBC & ITV get their weather from the Met Office, so why chastise the BBC. On the days quoted I am able to diasgree as the climate is localised, living in Poole, there were differences to that cited, and living inland has different weather to the coast, and that's a given across all of Dorset. Sure the weather has an effect, but so do a LOT of other local things impact people's yearning to come to Bournemouth.
C'mon people, the BBC & ITV get their weather from the Met Office, so why chastise the BBC. On the days quoted I am able to diasgree as the climate is localised, living in Poole, there were differences to that cited, and living inland has different weather to the coast, and that's a given across all of Dorset. Sure the weather has an effect, but so do a LOT of other local things impact people's yearning to come to Bournemouth.
Posted by: Badger, Poole on 10:15am Mon 4 Aug 08
...and these are the people who are predicting that the world is going to warm up irreversably over the next 50 years!
If they can't get the forecast right over a few weeks why should we have any faith in their predictions for climiate change?
...and these are the people who are predicting that the world is going to warm up irreversably over the next 50 years!
If they can't get the forecast right over a few weeks why should we have any faith in their predictions for climiate change?
Posted by: simon, bournemouth on 10:31am Mon 4 Aug 08
quote..."The BBC don't even put Bournemouth on their weather map which seems incredible"
Why would they?... i know this was a hoteliers comment, but the pointless
Mark Smith and the rest of his imbeciles need to get their heads out of there a**** and get real. We are a small seaside town, and its time they understood that. People are put off coming here because the roads are horrendus and you have to take out a second mortgage to park anywhere - unless your a traveller of course. Friday nights fireworks were stopped (initialy) because the mounted police couldnt control the teenagers (what next, riot police at bordem busters?) and if you try to travel into town on a saturday or sunday on a hot day, you will get stuck for seven hours trying to get through castle lane, seven hours trying to get off the A35 at tower park and through poole, and seven hours along the a338, becuase it will be closed for this long for a minor shunt even - as has happened one year on one of the hottest sundays of that particular summer - with all the children and pets overheating in their families cars. Those pointless traffic information sign were put up along the wessex way to help provide useful information but they never do. Complete wastes of money. There are loads of good trunk roads into this town but they are screwed up with bad planning and so congestion, and once you get to bmth, the car parks that havent been sold off are full, and cost a fortune.."People deterred from coming to bmth because of inacurate weather forecasts"... oh my god that really is funny.
quote..."The BBC don't even put Bournemouth on their weather map which seems incredible"
Why would they?... i know this was a hoteliers comment, but the pointless
Mark Smith and the rest of his imbeciles need to get their heads out of there a**** and get real. We are a small seaside town, and its time they understood that. People are put off coming here because the roads are horrendus and you have to take out a second mortgage to park anywhere - unless your a traveller of course. Friday nights fireworks were stopped (initialy) because the mounted police couldnt control the teenagers (what next, riot police at bordem busters?) and if you try to travel into town on a saturday or sunday on a hot day, you will get stuck for seven hours trying to get through castle lane, seven hours trying to get off the A35 at tower park and through poole, and seven hours along the a338, becuase it will be closed for this long for a minor shunt even - as has happened one year on one of the hottest sundays of that particular summer - with all the children and pets overheating in their families cars. Those pointless traffic information sign were put up along the wessex way to help provide useful information but they never do. Complete wastes of money. There are loads of good trunk roads into this town but they are screwed up with bad planning and so congestion, and once you get to bmth, the car parks that havent been sold off are full, and cost a fortune.."People deterred from coming to bmth because of inacurate weather forecasts"... oh my god that really is funny.
Posted by: Carl Barron, Dorset on 4:14pm Mon 4 Aug 08
Posted by: Badger, Poole on 10:15am today
[bold]Quote [/bold] If they can't get the forecast right over a few weeks why should we have any faith in their predictions for climate change?
[bold]Reply [/bold] well said [bold]Badger[/bold] .
Let us enjoy [bold]that which we do have[/bold] . As for (so called) Global Warming lets [bold]enjoy[/bold] that which we do have at [bold]'Dorset Visual Guide'.[/bold]
[italic]Especially so,[/italic] for all those [bold]negative thinkers[/bold] about Bournemouth.
[bold]View sunny Bournemouth link below enjoy:[/bold]
http://dorsetvisualg
uide.co.uk/Bournemou
th_Picture_Gallery.h
tm
Posted by: Badger, Poole on 10:15am today
Quote If they can't get the forecast right over a few weeks why should we have any faith in their predictions for climate change?
Reply well said
Badger .
Let us enjoy
that which we do have . As for (so called) Global Warming lets
enjoy that which we do have at
'Dorset Visual Guide'.
Especially so, for all those
negative thinkers about Bournemouth.
View sunny Bournemouth link below enjoy:
http://dorsetvisualg
uide.co.uk/Bournemou
th_Picture_Gallery.h
tm
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